Oscar Predictions 2015: June 8, 2015

Hey all! Back for another predictions update!

Here are some important news bits, in case you missed them:

melissamccarthy_spy

Melissa McCarthy pushed Paul Feig’s Spy to the top of the U.S. box office. Critical consensus, audience approval, big bucks, and the awards success of Feig’s Bridesmaids (2011) suggest a sure thing for Oscar, but Spy lacks the surprise success and dramatic elements of Bridesmaids. Right now, McCarthy, Rose Byrne, Feig (as a writer), Jason Statham, and Ivy Levan’s “Who Can You Trust” are long-shot possibilities for nominations.

jgl_walk

Robert Zemeckis’ The Walk will open the New York Film Festival. Recent openers include David Fincher’s The Social Network (2010), Ang Lee’s Life of Pi (2012), Paul Greengrass’ Captain Phillips (2013), and David Fincher’s Gone Girl (2014). All three went on to receive at least one Oscar nomination in a major category, so expectations for The Walk are, well, high. Then again, Roman Polanski’s Carnage opened NYFF in 2011…

ellefanning_threegenerations-edited

The Weinstein Co. set Gaby Dellal’s Three Generations for a limited release on Sept. 18. Elle Fanning leads the drama as a (female-to-male) trans teen; Naomi Watts plays her single mother, while Susan Sarandon steps into the role of her lesbian grandmother. The release of Generations looks to capitalize on the recent surge of queer and trans narratives; look for Fanning to captivate Oscar voters.

missyoualready_pic

Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions acquired U.S. distribution rights for Catherine Hardwicke’s Miss You Already, Variety reports. Drew Barrymore and Toni Collette lead as two friends; one (Barrymore, it seems) finds out she’s pregnant as the other faces breast cancer. Miss, which has no set release date, may be a commercial play, given Lionsgate’s slate, which includes Genius and Sea of Trees with Roadside and Freeheld.

shameikmoore_dope

I (finally) remembered to add several films to my lists! Noteworthy additions include Rick Famuyiwa’s Dope, Alfonso Gomez-Rejon’s Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, and Paolo Sorrentino’s Youth.

Anyway, this week’s predictions:

 

Main Categories

Best Picture

  1. Carol
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. The Danish Girl
  4. The Revenant
  5. Demolition

If There Are More Than Five…

  1. Youth
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Freeheld
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Todd Haynes for Carol
  2. Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight
  3. Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl
  4. Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant
  5. Jean-Marc Vallée for Demolition

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  1. Rooney Mara for Carol
  2. Cate Blanchett for Carol
  3. Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn
  4. Ellen Page for Freeheld
  5. Elle Fanning for Three Generations

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl
  3. Jake Gyllenhaal for Demolition
  4. Michael Caine for Youth
  5. Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight
  2. Diane Ladd for Joy
  3. Vanessa Redgrave for The Secret Scripture
  4. Naomi Watts for Demolition
  5. Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Concussion

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

  1. Samuel L. Jackson for The Hateful Eight
  2. Tom Hardy for The Revenant
  3. Ezra Miller for The Stanford Prison Experiment
  4. Chris Cooper for Demolition
  5. Seth Rogen for Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight
  2. Bryan Sipe for Demolition
  3. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley for Inside Out
  4. Paolo Sorrentino for Youth
  5. Amy Schumer for Trainwreck

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Phyllis Nagy for Carol
  2. Lucinda Coxon for The Danish Girl
  3. Alejandro González Iñárritu and Mark L. Smith for The Revenant
  4. Jesse Andrews for Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
  5. Aaron Sorkin for Steve Jobs

They Deserve Better

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. Inside Out
  2. The Good Dinosaur
  3. When Marnie Was There
  4. The Little Prince
  5. Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet

Best Documentary Feature

  1. The Hunting Ground
  2. Steve Jobs: Man in the Machine
  3. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
  4. The Wrecking Crew
  5. Seymour: An Introduction

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Girlhood, or Bande de filles – France
  2. Gloria – Mexico
  3. As We Were Dreaming, or Als wir träumten – Germany
  4. The Club, or El Club – Chile
  5. Taxi – Iran

Music

Best Original Score

  1. Carter Burwell for Carol
  2. Alexandre Desplat for The Danish Girl
  3. Fernando Velázquez for Crimson Peak
  4. John Williams for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  5. Patrick Doyle for Cinderella

Best Original Song – just guesses

  1. “Till It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Cold One” from Ricki and the Flash
  4. “As Real as You and Me” from Home
  5. ???

Crafts

Best Cinematography

  1. Edward Lachman for Carol
  2. Emmanuel Lubezki for The Revenant
  3. Robert Richardson for The Hateful Eight
  4. Roger Deakins for Sicario
  5. Anthony Dod Mantle for In the Heart of the Sea

Best Costume Design

  1. Sandy Powell for Carol
  2. Sandy Powell for Cinderella
  3. Courtney Hoffman for The Hateful Eight
  4. Paco Delgado for The Danish Girl
  5. Odile Dicks-Mireau for Brooklyn

Best Film Editing

  1. Fred Raskin for The Hateful Eight
  2. Stephen Mirrione for The Revenant
  3. Daniel P. Hanley and Mark Hill for In the Heart of the Sea
  4. Elliott Graham for Steve Jobs
  5. Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hair

  1. Cinderella
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

  1. Dante Ferretti for Cinderella
  2. Judy Becker for Carol
  3. Eve Stewart for The Danish Girl
  4. Thomas E. Sanders for Crimson Peak
  5. Rick Carter and Darren Gilford for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. The Revenant
  4. Spectre
  5. Jurassic World

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. The Revenant
  4. Spectre
  5. I Saw the Light

Best Visual Effects

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
  3. The Martian
  4. Jurassic World
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
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