Oscar Predictions 2015: Chi-Raq and Trainwreck Enter the Fray

Hey all! Back for another predictions update!

In case you missed them, here are some news bits that may prove relevant during the awards season:

Photo (via TIME) by Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images

Amazon Studios to give Spike Lee’s Chi-Raq Oscar-qualifying run in December. The film, based on the classical Greek comedy Lysistrata, will have an official opening after the new year. The theatrical release will precede its streaming debut, in order to avoid a Beasts of No Nation-esque conflict. The film focuses on a woman (played by Teyonah Parris) who goes on a sex strike to protest black-on-black gun violence in Chicago.

The Amy Schumer-led, Judd Apatow-helmed Trainwreck soars. The acclaimed comedy surpassed its mid-teens expectations with $30.2 million – the second-best for an Apatow film, just behind Knocked Up (2007)’s $30.9 million debut. Universal Pictures may push Schumer’s original screenplay for awards consideration; the actress-writer may also find herself in the best-actress conversation – at least at the Golden Globes, right?

Bill Condon’s Mr. Holmes wins the specialty box office. The film, led by Ian McKellen as an aging Sherlock Holmes battling senility and grappling with an unsolved case, made $2.49 million from just 363 locations. If the drama continues to succeed in the coming weeks, we may have another legitimate contender for the best actor Oscar.

Fox Searchlight sets Jean-Marc Vallée’s Demolition for April 6, 2016. With Jake Gyllenhaal as the lead and Naomi Watts and Chris Cooper in supporting roles, this looked like another awards magnet for Vallée, but maybe this will be a commercial hit next year. The distributor still has contenders in Paolo Sorrentino’s Youth, John Crowley’s Brooklyn, Luca Guadagnino’s A Bigger Splash, and Noah Baumbach’s Mistress America.

Sony Pictures Classics pulls The Lady in the Van from its 2015 slate. Once set for limited release on December 11, the drama looked like an Oscar vehicle for Maggie Smith, who reprises her Olivier Award-nominated role as a woman who lived in a man’s driveway for 15 years. No word on a new release date, but I imagine it will make its mark early next year. SPC probably pushed Lady back to make room for other best-actress contenders.

Now, this week’s predictions:

 

Main Categories

Best Picture

  1. Carol
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. The Danish Girl
  4. The Revenant
  5. Youth

If There Are More Than Five…

  1. Steve Jobs
  2. Inside Out
  3. Bridge of Spies
  4. Suffragette
  5. Freeheld

Best Director

  1. Todd Haynes for Carol
  2. Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight
  3. Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl
  4. Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant
  5. Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  1. Rooney Mara for Carol
  2. Cate Blanchett for Carol
  3. Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn
  4. Ellen Page for Freeheld
  5. Elle Fanning for About Ray

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Caine for Youth
  4. Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs
  5. Tom Hiddleston for I Saw the Light

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight
  2. Diane Ladd for Joy
  3. Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs
  4. Vanessa Redgrave for The Secret Scripture
  5. Jane Fonda for Youth

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

  1. Samuel L. Jackson for The Hateful Eight
  2. Tom Hardy for The Revenant
  3. Seth Rogen for Steve Jobs
  4. Jason Segel for The End of the Tour
  5. Ezra Miller for The Stanford Prison Experiment

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight
  2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley for Inside Out
  3. Paolo Sorrentino for Youth
  4. Abi Morgan for Suffragette
  5. Amy Schumer for Trainwreck

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Phyllis Nagy for Carol
  2. Lucinda Coxon for The Danish Girl
  3. Aaron Sorkin for Steve Jobs
  4. Alejandro González Iñárritu and Mark L. Smith for The Revenant
  5. Ron Nyswaner for Freeheld

They Deserve Better

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. Inside Out
  2. The Good Dinosaur
  3. When Marnie Was There
  4. Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
  5. The Peanuts Movie

Best Documentary Feature

  1. The Hunting Ground
  2. Steve Jobs: Man in the Machine
  3. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
  4. What Happened, Miss Simone?
  5. Seymour: An Introduction

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Son of Saul, or Saul fia – Hungary
  2. ???
  3. ???
  4. ???
  5. ???

Music

Best Original Score

  1. Carter Burwell for Carol
  2. Alexandre Desplat for The Danish Girl
  3. Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight
  4. John Williams for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  5. Thomas Newman for Bridge of Spies

Best Original Song

  1. “Till It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. Song from Spectre
  3. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (more)
  4. Song from Straight Outta Compton
  5. “Cold One” from Ricki and the Flash (more; trailer with song snippet)

Crafts

Best Cinematography

  1. Edward Lachman for Carol
  2. Emmanuel Lubezki for The Revenant
  3. Robert Richardson for The Hateful Eight
  4. Roger Deakins for Sicario
  5. Janusz Kaminski for Bridge of Spies

Best Costume Design

  1. Sandy Powell for Carol
  2. Sandy Powell for Cinderella
  3. Courtney Hoffman for The Hateful Eight
  4. Paco Delgado for The Danish Girl
  5. Odile Dicks-Mireau for Brooklyn

Best Film Editing

  1. Fred Raskin for The Hateful Eight
  2. Stephen Mirrione for The Revenant
  3. Elliott Graham for Steve Jobs
  4. Affona Gonçalves for Carol
  5. Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hair

  1. Cinderella
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Production Design

  1. Dante Ferretti for Cinderella
  2. Judy Becker for Carol
  3. Eve Stewart for The Danish Girl
  4. Thomas E. Sanders for Crimson Peak
  5. Rick Carter and Darren Gilford for Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. Jurassic World
  3. The Hateful Eight
  4. The Revenant
  5. Spectre

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. The Revenant
  4. Spectre
  5. Jurassic World

Best Visual Effects

  1. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens
  2. Jurassic World
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
  5. The Martian
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