Best Actress in a Supporting Role 2016

Most recent update: June 8, 2016…

michellewilliams_manchesterMichelle Williams as she appears in Kenneth Longergan’s Manchester by the Sea (via mxdwn)

I called Michelle Williams winning this Oscar as early as June – maybe earlier? – and… well… how much has changed, really? Unless Viola Davis goes supporting for Fences, I have a difficult time imagining Williams losing here. Can Hidden Figures and/or Live by Night surprise and bring new contenders to the stage?


My official predictions include only performances in films set for distribution in the United States. The process of guessing who will and will not make the cut always seems to be collaborative, so feel free to leave a comment – here or on Twitter – that addresses any relevant information or contenders you feel should be included.

Predicted Nominees

  1. Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea (more)

  2. Naomie Harris for Moonlight (more)

  3. Nicole Kidman for Lion (more)

  4. Felicity Jones for A Monster Calls (more)

  5. NEW!!! Molly Shannon for Other People (more)

Next in Line?

  1. OUT OF LIMBO!!! Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women (more)
  2. Helen Mirren for Eye in the Sky (more)
  3. NEW!!! Janelle Monáe for Hidden Figures (more)
  4. NEW!!! Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures (more)
  5. NEW!!! Greta Gerwig for Jackie (more)

Other Possibilities

  1. NEW!!! Laura Linney for Nocturnal Animals (more)
  2. NEW!!! Zoe Saldana for Live by Night (more)
  3. NEW!!! Sienna Miller for Live by Night (more)
  4. NEW!!! Elle Fanning for Live by Night (more)
  5. Laura Dern for The Founder (more)
  6. Helen Mirren for Collateral Beauty (more)
  7. Aja Naomi King for The Birth of a Nation (more)
  8. Rooney Mara for Lion (more)
  9. Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (more)

Long Shots

  1. Jennifer Aniston for The Yellow Birds (more)
  2. OUT OF LIMBO!!! Elle Fanning for 20th Century Women (more)
  3. Katey Sagal for Bleed for This (more)
  4. Keira Knightley for Collateral Beauty (more)
  5. Naomie Harris for Collateral Beauty (more)
  6. Toni Collette for The Yellow Birds (more)
  7. Sigourney Weaver for A Monster Calls (more)
  8. Laura Dern for Certain Women (more)
  9. Kristen Stewart for Certain Women (more)
  10. SHUT UP, LET ME DREAM!!! Faye Dunaway for The Bye Bye Man (more)
  11. Michelle Williams for Certain Women (more)


  • Haley Bennett for The Girl on the Train (more)
  • Haley Bennett for The Magnificent Seven (more)
  • Viola Davis for Suicide Squad (more)
  • Cara Delevingne for Suicide Squad (more)
  • Rosemarie DeWitt for La La Land
  • Rebecca Ferguson for Florence Foster Jenkins (more)
  • Rebecca Ferguson for The Girl on the Train (more)
  • Christina Hendricks for The Neon Demon (more)
  • Kate Hudson for Deepwater Horizon (more)
  • Laura Linney for Sully (more)
  • Blake Lively for Café Society (more)
  • Rosamund Pike for HHhH (more)
  • Parker Posey for Café Society (more)
  • Margot Robbie for Suicide Squad (more)
  • Mia Wasikowska for HHhH (more)
  • Rachel Weisz for The Light Between Oceans (more)

In Limbo

I regard these performances as ineligible at the moment, because a) the films might not hit theaters this year due to distributors’ schedules or their not being ready, or b) the films lack stateside distribution altogether. Some films fit under all three categories.

Of course, as anyone who follows this mess knows, things can change at a moment’s notice.

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh for LBJ (more)
  • Naomi Watts for The Bleeder (more)
  • Saoirse Ronan for The Seagull (more)
  • Amanda Seyfried for Flying Horse (more)
  • Jessica Chastain for The Life and Death of John F. Donovan (more)
  • Maisie Williams for The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea (more)
  • Jennifer Connelly for American Pastoral (more)
  • Helen Hunt for Please Stand By (more)

A photo of Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (via Collider).


Box Office


Dates and Distribution







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